Given the choice between Bob Solow and an econometric model to make forecasts, I'd choose Bob Solow; but I'd rather have Bob Solow with an econometric model, than Bob Solow without one
Paul Samuelson
December 2008 Economic Outlook
"Nasty Recession" For U.S. To Include Four Quarters of Declining GDP
California Unemployment to Climb to Near 9%, and a Long Slow Recovery Ahead
Los Angeles, December 11, 2008 - In its fourth quarterly report of 2008, the UCLA Anderson
Forecast predicts that the current recession inflicting the national economy will feature four
quarters of negative growth (followed by very tepid growth rates) and rising unemployment rates
that last through 2010. The California forecast will share the national recession, with negative
growth through the middle of next year and high unemployment until 2010 as well.
ORANGE COUNTY, October 27, 2008 - The economic outlook for California and Orange County has become more pessimistic
over the last few weeks according to the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast for Orange County. The Forecast was
presented today in Irvine, California, before hundreds of leaders in the business community.
In its annual economic forecast for Orange County, the Forecast projects the U.S. and state economies will move
in tandem over the next few years, with income and employment deteriorating further before the housing market hits bottom.
Video Sept 24th conference: Panel Discussion on Turbulance in Financial Markets.
(From Left to right)
Edward Leamer, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast (Moderator) David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast Robert T. McGee, Director of Macro Strategy & Research, U.S. Trust, Bank of America Private Wealth Management Donald Straszheim, Vice Chairman, Roth Capital Partners John Lipsky, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
Insights
From Jerry-Rigged to Petered Out: Lessons from the Deukmejian Era for Contemporary California State Budgeting
Daniel J.B. Mitchell
September 1, 2007
In this forthcoming chapter of California Policy Options 2008, Former Director of the
UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ho-Su Wu Professor Daniel Mitchell points out that California’s
current mixture of a slowing economy, a persistent budget deficit, and a no-new-taxes governor
has actually been a common feature of state budgeting since the 1980s. Prof. Mitchell argues
that there are several important lessons current policy makers can learn from this history,
so that we hopefully are not doomed to repeat it.
A Flat World, A Level Playing Field, a Small World After All, or None of the Above?
Edward Leamer
February 21, 2006
Award-winning journalist and author, Thomas L. Friedman discusses the changing forces
of global competition in his best-seller, The World is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century.
Award-winning professor and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, Edward Leamer
reviews the book and dissects the title's metaphor in the Journal of Economic Literature
book review, "A Flat World, A Level Playing Field, a Small World After All, or None of the Above?"
In recessions we have negative economic growth, and in recoveries we rack up pluses.
But overall, the U.S. economy since 1970 has grown an average of a little more than
3 percent a year.
Don't expect that for 2006.
The Wall Street Journal, in a recent survey of 56 economists, found that their forecasts
for 2006 averaged around the "normal" rate of 3 percent. But that is not what the UCLA
Anderson Forecast projects.
Book Review